R6 HC

Brodie Grundy

RUCK · SYD · UNDER 21.5

E/V 1.15

Lachie Ash

DEF · GWS · OVER 27.5

E/V 1.11

Lachie Whitfield

DEF · GWS · OVER 27.5

E/V 0.99

Angus Sheldrick

MID · SYD · UNDER 23.5

E/V 0.94

Connor Idun

DEF · GWS · OVER 18.5

E/V 0.93

Brodie Grundy

RUCK · SYD · UNDER 21.5

E/V 1.15

Lachie Ash

DEF · GWS · OVER 27.5

E/V 1.11

Lachie Whitfield

DEF · GWS · OVER 27.5

E/V 0.99

Angus Sheldrick

MID · SYD · UNDER 23.5

E/V 0.94

Connor Idun

DEF · GWS · OVER 18.5

E/V 0.93

AFL · 2026 Season · Round 6

The sharpest
AFL disposal
model in Australia.

Predictive disposal analytics powered by a six-factor model, Edge/Vol filtering, and a publicly verified track record. Built for serious AFL bettors.

View Round 6 Picks →How it works

Get Round 7 picks in your inbox — free during beta

Join others getting the sharpest AFL disposal picks each week.

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60.7%

HC Win Rate

84 picks · HIGH CONVICTION tier

60%

Filtered Win Rate

100 picks · E/V ≥ 0.50

611

Picks Analysed

Rounds 3–6 · 2026 season

53.8%

Overall Win Rate

All 611 picks tracked

How SportSphere HQ works

Disposal prediction model

Six-factor weighted model built on 2025 and 2026 season data, opponent concession rates, TOG-adjusted disposal rates, play style, conditions, and availability.

Edge/Vol filtering

Every pick is scored by Edge divided by Estimated Standard Deviation. Only picks with E/V ≥ 0.50 make the cut — eliminating noise and keeping only statistically meaningful edges.

Position-specific thresholds

MID, DEF, FWD and RUCK markets price differently. Our STRONG thresholds are calibrated per position based on real backtested accuracy — not a one-size-fits-all number.

Transparent track record

Every prediction is logged. Every result is tracked. Win rate, MAE, ROI — all published publicly. No cherry picking. No hidden losses.

Weight Optimisation Simulator

Adjust any model parameter and instantly see how historical accuracy changes across all tracked predictions. Find the optimal configuration before the next round.

Try the Simulator →

Verified results

Public track record

Every prediction logged, every result tracked. No cherry picking.

Round	Total Picks	Overall
Round 3	137	52.6%
Round 4	159	49.1%
Round 5	160	56.9%
Round 6	155	56.8%

Ready to analyse with an edge?

View this round's HIGH CONVICTION picks — the tier with a verified 60.7%+ win rate.

View Round 6 Picks →

R6 HC

Brodie Grundy

RUCK · SYD · UNDER 21.5

E/V 1.15

Lachie Ash

DEF · GWS · OVER 27.5

E/V 1.11

Lachie Whitfield

DEF · GWS · OVER 27.5

E/V 0.99

Angus Sheldrick

MID · SYD · UNDER 23.5

E/V 0.94

Connor Idun

DEF · GWS · OVER 18.5

E/V 0.93

Brodie Grundy

RUCK · SYD · UNDER 21.5

E/V 1.15

Lachie Ash

DEF · GWS · OVER 27.5

E/V 1.11

Lachie Whitfield

DEF · GWS · OVER 27.5

E/V 0.99

Angus Sheldrick

MID · SYD · UNDER 23.5

E/V 0.94

Connor Idun

DEF · GWS · OVER 18.5

E/V 0.93

AFL · 2026 Season · Round 6

The sharpest
AFL disposal
model in Australia.

Predictive disposal analytics powered by a six-factor model, Edge/Vol filtering, and a publicly verified track record. Built for serious AFL bettors.

View Round 6 Picks →How it works

Get Round 7 picks in your inbox — free during beta

Join others getting the sharpest AFL disposal picks each week.

No spam. Unsubscribe any time.

60.7%

HC Win Rate

84 picks · HIGH CONVICTION tier

60%

Filtered Win Rate

100 picks · E/V ≥ 0.50

611

Picks Analysed

Rounds 3–6 · 2026 season

53.8%

Overall Win Rate

All 611 picks tracked

How SportSphere HQ works

Disposal prediction model

Six-factor weighted model built on 2025 and 2026 season data, opponent concession rates, TOG-adjusted disposal rates, play style, conditions, and availability.

Edge/Vol filtering

Every pick is scored by Edge divided by Estimated Standard Deviation. Only picks with E/V ≥ 0.50 make the cut — eliminating noise and keeping only statistically meaningful edges.

Position-specific thresholds

MID, DEF, FWD and RUCK markets price differently. Our STRONG thresholds are calibrated per position based on real backtested accuracy — not a one-size-fits-all number.

Transparent track record

Every prediction is logged. Every result is tracked. Win rate, MAE, ROI — all published publicly. No cherry picking. No hidden losses.

Weight Optimisation Simulator

Adjust any model parameter and instantly see how historical accuracy changes across all tracked predictions. Find the optimal configuration before the next round.

Try the Simulator →

Verified results

Public track record

Every prediction logged, every result tracked. No cherry picking.

Round	Total Picks	Overall
Round 3	137	52.6%
Round 4	159	49.1%
Round 5	160	56.9%
Round 6	155	56.8%

Ready to analyse with an edge?

View this round's HIGH CONVICTION picks — the tier with a verified 60.7%+ win rate.

View Round 6 Picks →

The sharpestAFL disposalmodel in Australia.

Get Round 7 picks in your inbox — free during beta

How SportSphere HQ works

Public track record

Ready to analyse with an edge?

The sharpestAFL disposalmodel in Australia.

Get Round 7 picks in your inbox — free during beta

How SportSphere HQ works

Public track record

Ready to analyse with an edge?

The sharpest
AFL disposal
model in Australia.

The sharpest
AFL disposal
model in Australia.