SportSphere HQ

SportSphere HQ is a statistical model that predicts AFL player disposal counts and evaluates player prop betting lines offered by bookmakers. It identifies picks where the model has genuine confidence the bookmaker line is mispriced.

Every pick is graded using Edge/Volatility (E/V) — the ratio of predicted edge to historical standard deviation. This measures not just whether the model predicts differently from the line, but whether that difference is statistically meaningful.

Picks are tiered into HC (High Conviction, E/V ≥ 0.90), SHARP (E/V 0.70–0.89), and BET (E/V 0.50–0.69). Picks below 0.50 are shown for reference only and excluded from recommendations.

SportSphere HQ is an independent project built by an AFL fan and software developer who got frustrated by the lack of transparent, data-driven analysis in the player prop space.

The model was built from scratch using historical AFL player data, bookmaker line history, and a custom Edge/Volatility framework. Every design decision — from the tier system to the position exclusions — is grounded in backtested results, not intuition.

SportSphere HQ is not affiliated with any bookmaker, tipping service, or betting syndicate. There is no subscription fee. The model is published weekly for free.

For questions about the model methodology, data issues, or general feedback — reach out directly.