500 Strong picks published · Round 3 to Grand Final · 2026 season

Public Track Record

307-193 from 500 graded picks. Win rate 61.4%.

Every high-conviction pick is logged before games start and graded against official AFL game data - wins and losses both shown.

Track record reflects the published filter: segments where archive analysis showed measurable edge, capped at the top 3 picks per matchup by edge size. See methodology

Strong Win Rate

61.4%

307W / 193L

Total Strong Picks

500

R3 to GF · 2026

What this track record shows

These results cover only our Strong filtered picks - the tier published to subscribers each week. Strong picks require both high model confidence AND Edge/Vol ≥ 0.50. The full model generates ~150 predictions per round across all tiers; we publish and track only the Strong filtered subset. This is the most transparent way to show real-world performance of the picks we actually recommend.

Pick Breakdown

Win/loss by position and direction - where the edge comes from.

MIDUNDER

169 picks61.5%

MIDOVER

132 picks62.1%

DEFOVER

109 picks52.3%

RUCKUNDER

37 picks67.6%

DEFUNDER

30 picks73.3%

RUCKOVER

4 picks50%

Round by Round

Click a round to see every Strong pick from that week.

Round	Picks	W	L	Win Rate
R3	42	27	15	64.3%
R4	22	9	13	40.9%
R5	27	22	5	81.5%
R6	27	18	9	66.7%
R7	27	20	7	74.1%
R8	27	15	12	55.6%
R9	27	16	11	59.3%
R10	24	13	11	54.2%
R11	23	14	9	60.9%
R12	23	16	7	69.6%
R13	9	4	5	44.4%
R14	20	14	6	70%
R15	19	13	6	68.4%
R16	9	5	4	55.6%
R17	13	5	8	38.5%
R18	13	5	8	38.5%
R19	3	2	1	66.7%
R20	22	16	6	72.7%
R21	22	11	11	50%
R22	24	17	7	70.8%
R23	26	14	12	53.8%
R24	18	9	9	50%
WF	5	5	0	100%
QF	7	4	3	57.1%
SF	5	3	2	60%
PF	6	4	2	66.7%
GF	10	6	4	60%
TOTAL	500	307	193	61.4%

Losing rounds are included for full transparency.

By Position

Position	Picks	W	L	Win Rate
MID	301	186	115	61.8%
DEF	139	79	60	56.8%
RUCK	41	27	14	65.9%
FWD	2	2	0	100%

Methodology

•All picks generated by the SportSphere six-factor weighted model

•Published picks are the Bet and High Conviction tiers of the volatility filter - Edge/Vol must clear a position threshold (0.50 MID/DEF, 0.55 RUCK, raised for high-volatility players) for Bet, and 1.4× that threshold for High Conviction - plus UnderTaker unders (line ≥ 18, edge ≥ 1.5-2.5 by position). Forwards excluded.

•Results graded against official AFL game data (Wheeloratings)

•Win = actual disposals meet or exceed the line in the predicted direction

•Loss = actual disposals miss the line in the predicted direction

•No picks excluded retrospectively - all results published including losses

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Analytics only - not financial or betting advice. 18+ only. Please gamble responsibly. Call 1800 858 858.