Model tool

Weight Optimisation Simulator

Adjust model weights and see how accuracy changes across 611 picks from Rounds 3–6. Run a grid search over 46,656 combinations to find optimal parameters.

Weight Controls

2025 Season Weight2025: 35% · 2026: 65%

Round 6 live blend: 35/65

Opponent Adjustment0.25

TOG-Adjusted Rate0.40

CBA / Form0.10

Play Style Factor0.60

Team Style Index0.06

Position Filter

Round Filter

Scenario Presets

MetricCurrent ModelYour ConfigDelta

Filtered Win Rate60.0%59.7%-0.3% ▼

STRONG Win Rate60.7%58.9%-1.8% ▼

Overall Win Rate53.8%53.8%+0.0% —

Filtered Picks100149+49 ▲

STRONG Picks84112+28 ▲

Insight: Configuration differs from live model. Filtered rate: -0.3%, STRONG rate: -2.5%.

Prediction Bias

Avg Bias

+1.28

OVER Win Rate

49.4%

UNDER Win Rate

61.7%

Bias by Position

MID

+1.23

DEF

+1.89

FWD

+0.42

RUCK

-1.61

Model is over-predicting by >1 disposal on average. Consider UNDER direction picks.

Win Rate by Position

PosPicksOriginalSimulatedDelta

MID33855%53.8%-1.2% ▼

DEF19455.7%56.2%+0.5% ▲

FWD6339.7%42.9%+3.2% ▲

RUCK1662.5%68.8%+6.3% ▲

Win Rate by Round (all picks tracked)

RoundPicksOriginalSimulatedDelta

Rd 313752.6%54%+1.4% ▲

Rd 415949.1%46.5%-2.6% ▼

Rd 516056.9%58.1%+1.2% ▲

Rd 615556.8%56.8%+0.0% —

Based on 611 verified picks · Rounds 3–6 · 2026 season

Win Rate by Condition (simulated)

Dry (611)

53.8%

Wet (0)

Roof (0)

Venue Reference (historical backtesting)

Adelaide Ovalhist57.1%

GABBAhist60%

GMHBA Stadiumhist55.6%

Marvel Stadiumhist51.9%

MCGhist48.6%

Optus Stadiumhist42.5%

Picks with Changed Outcome or Confidence226 picks

Josh Worrell

Rd 3 · DEF

vs 23.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Wayne Milera

Rd 3 · DEF

vs 23.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✗ LOSS·LEAN

WIN→LOSS ▼

Josh Rachele

Rd 3 · MID

vs 18.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Shaun Mannagh

Rd 3 · FWD

vs 16.5

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

✗ LOSS·LEAN

Tier change

Dan Houston

Rd 3 · DEF

vs 24.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✗ LOSS·LEAN

WIN→LOSS ▼

Scott Pendlebury

Rd 3 · MID

vs 20.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Isaac Quaynor

Rd 3 · DEF

vs 17.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Darcy Cameron

Rd 3 · RUCK

vs 16.5

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

✗ LOSS·LEAN

Tier change

Clayton Oliver

Rd 3 · MID

vs 26.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Connor Idun

Rd 3 · DEF

vs 18.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·STRONG

Tier change

Harry Himmelberg

Rd 3 · DEF

vs 18.5

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

✗ LOSS·STRONG

Tier change

Callum Wilkie

Rd 3 · DEF

vs 22.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Bradley Hill

Rd 3 · MID

vs 19.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·STRONG

Tier change

Lachie Neale

Rd 3 · MID

vs 29.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Dayne Zorko

Rd 3 · DEF

vs 28.5

✗ LOSS·STRONG

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Will Ashcroft

Rd 3 · MID

vs 27.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✓ WIN·LEAN

LOSS→WIN ▲

Darcy Wilmot

Rd 3 · DEF

vs 23.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Josh Dunkley

Rd 3 · MID

vs 22.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Zac Bailey

Rd 3 · MID

vs 19.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Levi Ashcroft

Rd 3 · MID

vs 17.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·STRONG

Tier change

Tom De Koning

Rd 3 · RUCK

vs 16.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✓ WIN·LEAN

LOSS→WIN ▲

Jordan Clark

Rd 3 · DEF

vs 25.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✓ WIN·LEAN

LOSS→WIN ▲

Shai Bolton

Rd 3 · FWD

vs 24.5

✗ LOSS·STRONG

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Luke Ryan

Rd 3 · DEF

vs 21.5

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

✗ LOSS·STRONG

Tier change

Matthew Johnson

Rd 3 · MID

vs 20.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·LEAN

Tier change

Karl Worner

Rd 3 · DEF

vs 17.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✗ LOSS·LEAN

WIN→LOSS ▼

Heath Chapman

Rd 3 · DEF

vs 16.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✓ WIN·LEAN

LOSS→WIN ▲

Jayden Short

Rd 3 · DEF

vs 25.5

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

✗ LOSS·STRONG

Tier change

Nick Vlastuin

Rd 3 · DEF

vs 18.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✓ WIN·LEAN

LOSS→WIN ▲

Sam Grlj

Rd 3 · FWD

vs 16.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Luke Davies-Uniacke

Rd 3 · MID

vs 28.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✓ WIN·LEAN

LOSS→WIN ▲

Jy Simpkin

Rd 3 · MID

vs 23.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✗ LOSS·LEAN

WIN→LOSS ▼

Luke McDonald

Rd 3 · DEF

vs 17.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Zach Merrett

Rd 3 · MID

vs 27.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Jye Caldwell

Rd 3 · MID

vs 24.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✗ LOSS·LEAN

WIN→LOSS ▼

Archie Roberts

Rd 3 · DEF

vs 23.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·STRONG

Tier change

Sam Durham

Rd 3 · MID

vs 21.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✗ LOSS·LEAN

WIN→LOSS ▼

Brayden Fiorini

Rd 3 · MID

vs 17.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Jacob Farrow

Rd 3 · DEF

vs 16.5

✗ LOSS·0

✓ WIN·STRONG

LOSS→WIN ▲

Jaxon Prior

Rd 3 · DEF

vs 16.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✓ WIN·LEAN

LOSS→WIN ▲

Will Brodie

Rd 3 · MID

vs 21.5

✗ LOSS·0

✓ WIN·STRONG

LOSS→WIN ▲

Jack Graham

Rd 3 · MID

vs 19.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✗ LOSS·LEAN

WIN→LOSS ▼

Liam Duggan

Rd 3 · DEF

vs 19.5

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

✗ LOSS·STRONG

Tier change

Tom McCarthy

Rd 3 · DEF

vs 19.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·STRONG

Tier change

Zak Butters

Rd 3 · MID

vs 32.5

✓ WIN·STRONG

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Jason Horne-Francis

Rd 3 · MID

vs 21.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✗ LOSS·LEAN

WIN→LOSS ▼

Willem Drew

Rd 3 · MID

vs 21.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·LEAN

Tier change

Logan Evans

Rd 3 · DEF

vs 17.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✓ WIN·LEAN

LOSS→WIN ▲

Oliver Florent

Rd 3 · MID

vs 21.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·LEAN

Tier change

Ed Langdon

Rd 3 · MID

vs 18.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✗ LOSS·LEAN

WIN→LOSS ▼

Zac Williams

Rd 3 · DEF

vs 17.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✓ WIN·LEAN

LOSS→WIN ▲

Jack Crisp

Rd 4 · MID

vs 22.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✗ LOSS·LEAN

WIN→LOSS ▼

Patrick Lipinski

Rd 4 · MID

vs 16.5

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

✗ LOSS·STRONG

Tier change

Isaac Quaynor

Rd 4 · DEF

vs 16.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✗ LOSS·LEAN

WIN→LOSS ▼

Lachie Schultz

Rd 4 · FWD

vs 16.5

✓ WIN·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✓ WIN·LEAN

Tier change

Dayne Zorko

Rd 4 · DEF

vs 28.5

✗ LOSS·STRONG

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Zac Bailey

Rd 4 · FWD

vs 20.5

✗ LOSS·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✗ LOSS·LEAN

Tier change

Ryan Lester

Rd 4 · DEF

vs 16.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Tom Blamires

Rd 4 · DEF

vs 18.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Patrick Cripps

Rd 4 · MID

vs 25.5

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

✗ LOSS·STRONG

Tier change

Andrew Brayshaw

Rd 4 · MID

vs 27.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✗ LOSS·LEAN

WIN→LOSS ▼

Shai Bolton

Rd 4 · FWD

vs 24.5

✓ WIN·HYBRID MID

✓ WIN·LEAN

Tier change

Murphy Reid

Rd 4 · FWD

vs 20.5

✗ LOSS·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✗ LOSS·LEAN

Tier change

Karl Worner

Rd 4 · DEF

vs 16.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·LEAN

Tier change

Josh Rachele

Rd 4 · FWD

vs 22.5

✓ WIN·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✓ WIN·STRONG

Tier change

Alex Neal-Bullen

Rd 4 · FWD

vs 16.5

✓ WIN·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Ollie Wines

Rd 4 · MID

vs 25.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Jayden Short

Rd 4 · DEF

vs 22.5

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

✗ LOSS·STRONG

Tier change

Nick Vlastuin

Rd 4 · DEF

vs 19.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✗ LOSS·LEAN

WIN→LOSS ▼

Sam Banks

Rd 4 · DEF

vs 19.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·STRONG

Tier change

Callum Mills

Rd 4 · MID

vs 24.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Nick Blakey

Rd 4 · DEF

vs 22.5

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

✗ LOSS·STRONG

Tier change

Riley Bice

Rd 4 · DEF

vs 19.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✓ WIN·LEAN

LOSS→WIN ▲

Brodie Grundy

Rd 4 · RUCK

vs 17.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✗ LOSS·LEAN

WIN→LOSS ▼

Justin McInerney

Rd 4 · MID

vs 23.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Harley Reid

Rd 4 · MID

vs 23.5

✓ WIN·STRONG

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Liam Baker

Rd 4 · MID

vs 21.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·LEAN

Tier change

Josh Lindsay

Rd 4 · DEF

vs 17.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✗ LOSS·LEAN

WIN→LOSS ▼

Willem Duursma

Rd 4 · FWD

vs 17.5

✓ WIN·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✓ WIN·LEAN

Tier change

John Noble

Rd 4 · DEF

vs 25.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·STRONG

Tier change

Bodhi Uwland

Rd 4 · DEF

vs 20.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Wil Powell

Rd 4 · DEF

vs 20.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·LEAN

Tier change

Christian Salem

Rd 4 · DEF

vs 21.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·STRONG

Tier change

Max Gawn

Rd 4 · RUCK

vs 19.5

✓ WIN·STRONG

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Bailey Dale

Rd 4 · DEF

vs 25.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Tim English

Rd 4 · RUCK

vs 20.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✓ WIN·MODERATE

LOSS→WIN ▲

Archie Roberts

Rd 4 · DEF

vs 23.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·STRONG

Tier change

Zak Johnson

Rd 4 · MID

vs 17.5

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

✗ LOSS·LEAN

Tier change

Xavier Duursma

Rd 4 · MID

vs 16.5

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

✗ LOSS·STRONG

Tier change

Gryan Miers

Rd 4 · FWD

vs 24.5

✗ LOSS·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✗ LOSS·LEAN

Tier change

Shaun Mannagh

Rd 4 · FWD

vs 18.5

✗ LOSS·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✗ LOSS·LEAN

Tier change

Oliver Dempsey

Rd 4 · FWD

vs 17.5

✗ LOSS·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Josh Ward

Rd 4 · MID

vs 21.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✓ WIN·LEAN

LOSS→WIN ▲

Dylan Moore

Rd 4 · FWD

vs 20.5

✗ LOSS·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Cam Mackenzie

Rd 4 · MID

vs 19.5

✓ WIN·STRONG

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Connor Macdonald

Rd 4 · FWD

vs 19.5

✗ LOSS·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✗ LOSS·LEAN

Tier change

Conor Nash

Rd 4 · MID

vs 19.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✗ LOSS·LEAN

WIN→LOSS ▼

Jack Ginnivan

Rd 4 · FWD

vs 19.5

✗ LOSS·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Josh Battle

Rd 4 · DEF

vs 18.5

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

✗ LOSS·STRONG

Tier change

Josh Weddle

Rd 4 · DEF

vs 16.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Jordan Dawson

Rd 5 · MID

vs 22.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Josh Rachele

Rd 5 · FWD

vs 21.5

✗ LOSS·HYBRID MID

✗ LOSS·LEAN

Tier change

James Peatling

Rd 5 · MID

vs 19.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✓ WIN·LEAN

LOSS→WIN ▲

Alex Neal-Bullen

Rd 5 · FWD

vs 17.5

✗ LOSS·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Izak Rankine

Rd 5 · FWD

vs 16.5

✗ LOSS·HYBRID MID

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Nick Daicos

Rd 5 · MID

vs 30.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·STRONG

Tier change

Jordan Clark

Rd 5 · DEF

vs 24.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Murphy Reid

Rd 5 · FWD

vs 21.5

✗ LOSS·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✓ WIN·LEAN

LOSS→WIN ▲

Luke Ryan

Rd 5 · DEF

vs 18.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Matthew Johnson

Rd 5 · MID

vs 18.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✗ LOSS·LEAN

WIN→LOSS ▼

Patrick Lipinski

Rd 5 · MID

vs 16.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Harry Sheezel

Rd 5 · DEF

vs 30.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·LEAN

Tier change

Jy Simpkin

Rd 5 · MID

vs 21.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✓ WIN·LEAN

LOSS→WIN ▲

Darcy Wilmot

Rd 5 · DEF

vs 20.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Jaspa Fletcher

Rd 5 · MID

vs 20.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Zac Bailey

Rd 5 · FWD

vs 20.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✓ WIN·LEAN

LOSS→WIN ▲

Keidean Coleman

Rd 5 · DEF

vs 19.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✗ LOSS·LEAN

WIN→LOSS ▼

George Wardlaw

Rd 5 · MID

vs 17.5

✓ WIN·STRONG

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Zach Merrett

Rd 5 · MID

vs 24.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·STRONG

Tier change

Jack Steele

Rd 5 · MID

vs 24.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✓ WIN·LEAN

LOSS→WIN ▲

Darcy Parish

Rd 5 · MID

vs 22.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✓ WIN·LEAN

LOSS→WIN ▲

Max Gawn

Rd 5 · RUCK

vs 22.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Noah Anderson

Rd 5 · MID

vs 25.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Chad Warner

Rd 5 · MID

vs 24.5

✓ WIN·STRONG

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

John Noble

Rd 5 · DEF

vs 24.5

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

✗ LOSS·STRONG

Tier change

Callum Mills

Rd 5 · MID

vs 23.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✓ WIN·LEAN

LOSS→WIN ▲

Isaac Heeney

Rd 5 · MID

vs 23.5

✗ LOSS·STRONG

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Riley Bice

Rd 5 · DEF

vs 21.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✗ LOSS·LEAN

WIN→LOSS ▼

Brodie Grundy

Rd 5 · RUCK

vs 20.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·STRONG

Tier change

Joel Jeffrey

Rd 5 · DEF

vs 19.5

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

✗ LOSS·STRONG

Tier change

Tom Papley

Rd 5 · FWD

vs 15.5

✓ WIN·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✓ WIN·LEAN

Tier change

Daniel Rioli

Rd 5 · DEF

vs 18.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Jai Serong

Rd 5 · MID

vs 18.5

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

✗ LOSS·STRONG

Tier change

Joel Freijah

Rd 5 · MID

vs 23.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·LEAN

Tier change

Josh Ward

Rd 5 · MID

vs 22.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✗ LOSS·LEAN

WIN→LOSS ▼

James Sicily

Rd 5 · DEF

vs 22.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·STRONG

Tier change

Connor Macdonald

Rd 5 · FWD

vs 18.5

✓ WIN·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Dylan Moore

Rd 5 · FWD

vs 20.5

✓ WIN·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✓ WIN·LEAN

Tier change

Jarman Impey

Rd 5 · DEF

vs 21.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Jack Ginnivan

Rd 5 · FWD

vs 19.5

✓ WIN·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Max Holmes

Rd 5 · MID

vs 28.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Gryan Miers

Rd 5 · FWD

vs 24.5

✗ LOSS·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Tanner Bruhn

Rd 5 · MID

vs 23.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Jack Graham

Rd 5 · MID

vs 18.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✗ LOSS·LEAN

WIN→LOSS ▼

Lawson Humphries

Rd 5 · DEF

vs 17.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Oliver Dempsey

Rd 5 · FWD

vs 16.5

✗ LOSS·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Shaun Mannagh

Rd 5 · FWD

vs 16.5

✗ LOSS·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✗ LOSS·LEAN

Tier change

Finn Callaghan

Rd 5 · MID

vs 29.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Jayden Short

Rd 5 · DEF

vs 22.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·STRONG

Tier change

Jack Ross

Rd 5 · MID

vs 21.5

✓ WIN·STRONG

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Harvey Thomas

Rd 5 · FWD

vs 20.5

✗ LOSS·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✗ LOSS·LEAN

Tier change

Toby Greene

Rd 5 · FWD

vs 20.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Joe Fonti

Rd 5 · DEF

vs 18.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Tyler Sonsie

Rd 5 · MID

vs 18.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✗ LOSS·LEAN

WIN→LOSS ▼

Harry Himmelberg

Rd 5 · DEF

vs 17.5

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

✗ LOSS·STRONG

Tier change

Ryan Angwin

Rd 5 · MID

vs 17.5

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

✗ LOSS·STRONG

Tier change

Sam Grlj

Rd 5 · FWD

vs 17.5

✓ WIN·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera

Rd 5 · DEF

vs 27.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✓ WIN·LEAN

LOSS→WIN ▲

Bradley Hill

Rd 5 · FWD

vs 21.5

✗ LOSS·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Jason Horne-Francis

Rd 5 · MID

vs 21.5

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

✗ LOSS·LEAN

Tier change

Jase Burgoyne

Rd 5 · DEF

vs 21.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Willem Drew

Rd 5 · MID

vs 19.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·LEAN

Tier change

Max Hall

Rd 5 · FWD

vs 17.5

✗ LOSS·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✗ LOSS·LEAN

Tier change

Aliir Aliir

Rd 5 · DEF

vs 16.5

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

✗ LOSS·STRONG

Tier change

Josh Daicos

Rd 6 · MID

vs 26.5

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

✗ LOSS·STRONG

Tier change

Patrick Cripps

Rd 6 · MID

vs 25.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✗ LOSS·LEAN

WIN→LOSS ▼

Adam Cerra

Rd 6 · MID

vs 23.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·LEAN

Tier change

Jack Crisp

Rd 6 · MID

vs 22.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✗ LOSS·LEAN

WIN→LOSS ▼

Oliver Hollands

Rd 6 · MID

vs 18.5

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

✗ LOSS·STRONG

Tier change

Brayden Maynard

Rd 6 · DEF

vs 17.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·STRONG

Tier change

Nick Haynes

Rd 6 · DEF

vs 17.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·STRONG

Tier change

Bailey Dale

Rd 6 · DEF

vs 23.5

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

✗ LOSS·LEAN

Tier change

Joel Freijah

Rd 6 · MID

vs 20.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Connor O'Sullivan

Rd 6 · DEF

vs 16.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Oliver Dempsey

Rd 6 · FWD

vs 16.5

✓ WIN·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Clayton Oliver

Rd 6 · MID

vs 28.5

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

✗ LOSS·LEAN

Tier change

Lachie Ash

Rd 6 · DEF

vs 27.5

✓ WIN·STRONG

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Finn Callaghan

Rd 6 · MID

vs 26.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Toby Greene

Rd 6 · FWD

vs 22.5

✗ LOSS·HYBRID MID

✗ LOSS·LEAN

Tier change

Harvey Thomas

Rd 6 · FWD

vs 20.5

✓ WIN·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✓ WIN·LEAN

Tier change

Riley Bice

Rd 6 · DEF

vs 20.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Connor Idun

Rd 6 · DEF

vs 18.5

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

✗ LOSS·STRONG

Tier change

Jai Serong

Rd 6 · MID

vs 17.5

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

✗ LOSS·STRONG

Tier change

James Rowbottom

Rd 6 · MID

vs 17.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·LEAN

Tier change

Phoenix Gothard

Rd 6 · FWD

vs 16.5

✗ LOSS·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Archie Roberts

Rd 6 · DEF

vs 27.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Christian Petracca

Rd 6 · MID

vs 27.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·LEAN

Tier change

Zach Merrett

Rd 6 · MID

vs 27.5

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

✗ LOSS·LEAN

Tier change

Matt Rowell

Rd 6 · MID

vs 26.5

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

✗ LOSS·LEAN

Tier change

John Noble

Rd 6 · DEF

vs 24.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·STRONG

Tier change

Jai Newcombe

Rd 6 · MID

vs 25.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·LEAN

Tier change

Jason Horne-Francis

Rd 6 · MID

vs 22.5

✗ LOSS·STRONG

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Connor Macdonald

Rd 6 · FWD

vs 21.5

✓ WIN·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✓ WIN·LEAN

Tier change

Jarman Impey

Rd 6 · DEF

vs 21.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Dylan Moore

Rd 6 · FWD

vs 20.5

✗ LOSS·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✗ LOSS·LEAN

Tier change

Jack Ginnivan

Rd 6 · FWD

vs 20.5

✗ LOSS·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✗ LOSS·LEAN

Tier change

Josh Ward

Rd 6 · MID

vs 20.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✗ LOSS·LEAN

WIN→LOSS ▼

Josh Battle

Rd 6 · DEF

vs 18.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·STRONG

Tier change

Massimo D'Ambrosio

Rd 6 · DEF

vs 18.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✗ LOSS·LEAN

WIN→LOSS ▼

Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera

Rd 6 · DEF

vs 27.5

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

✗ LOSS·LEAN

Tier change

Josh Worrell

Rd 6 · DEF

vs 24.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·STRONG

Tier change

Rory Laird

Rd 6 · MID

vs 24.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✓ WIN·LEAN

LOSS→WIN ▲

Marcus Windhager

Rd 6 · MID

vs 23.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Wayne Milera

Rd 6 · DEF

vs 22.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·STRONG

Tier change

Bradley Hill

Rd 6 · FWD

vs 20.5

✓ WIN·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

James Peatling

Rd 6 · MID

vs 20.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✓ WIN·LEAN

LOSS→WIN ▲

Izak Rankine

Rd 6 · FWD

vs 19.5

✗ LOSS·HYBRID MID

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Darcy Wilson

Rd 6 · MID

vs 17.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Max Hall

Rd 6 · FWD

vs 17.5

✗ LOSS·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Luke Davies-Uniacke

Rd 6 · MID

vs 27.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Luke Parker

Rd 6 · MID

vs 25.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·STRONG

Tier change

Dion Prestia

Rd 6 · MID

vs 19.5

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

✗ LOSS·LEAN

Tier change

George Wardlaw

Rd 6 · MID

vs 17.5

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

✗ LOSS·LEAN

Tier change

Sam Grlj

Rd 6 · FWD

vs 16.5

✓ WIN·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✓ WIN·LEAN

Tier change

Kysaiah Pickett

Rd 6 · FWD

vs 24.5

✓ WIN·HYBRID MID

✓ WIN·LEAN

Tier change

Jack Steele

Rd 6 · MID

vs 23.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·LEAN

Tier change

Zac Bailey

Rd 6 · FWD

vs 20.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Cam Rayner

Rd 6 · FWD

vs 17.5

✓ WIN·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✓ WIN·LEAN

Tier change

Harvey Langford

Rd 6 · MID

vs 16.5

✗ LOSS·STRONG

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Murphy Reid

Rd 6 · FWD

vs 22.5

✓ WIN·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Tim Kelly

Rd 6 · MID

vs 22.5

✗ LOSS·STRONG

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Shai Bolton

Rd 6 · FWD

vs 20.5

✗ LOSS·HYBRID MID

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Liam Duggan

Rd 6 · DEF

vs 19.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✓ WIN·LEAN

LOSS→WIN ▲

Luke Ryan

Rd 6 · DEF

vs 19.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Neil Erasmus

Rd 6 · MID

vs 19.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Matthew Johnson

Rd 6 · MID

vs 17.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✓ WIN·LEAN

LOSS→WIN ▲

Top Changes

26 losses → wins ▲

Will Ashcroft (Rd 3)

Tom De Koning (Rd 3)

Jordan Clark (Rd 3)

26 wins → losses ▼

Wayne Milera (Rd 3)

Dan Houston (Rd 3)

Karl Worner (Rd 3)

Pattern: mostly MID picks

Simulation uses 611 verified picks · Rounds 3–6 · 2026 season. Not betting advice. 18+ only.

Model tool

Weight Optimisation Simulator

Adjust model weights and see how accuracy changes across 611 picks from Rounds 3–6. Run a grid search over 46,656 combinations to find optimal parameters.

Weight Controls

2025 Season Weight2025: 35% · 2026: 65%

Round 6 live blend: 35/65

Opponent Adjustment0.25

TOG-Adjusted Rate0.40

CBA / Form0.10

Play Style Factor0.60

Team Style Index0.06

Position Filter

Round Filter

Scenario Presets

MetricCurrent ModelYour ConfigDelta

Filtered Win Rate60.0%59.7%-0.3% ▼

STRONG Win Rate60.7%58.9%-1.8% ▼

Overall Win Rate53.8%53.8%+0.0% —

Filtered Picks100149+49 ▲

STRONG Picks84112+28 ▲

Insight: Configuration differs from live model. Filtered rate: -0.3%, STRONG rate: -2.5%.

Prediction Bias

Avg Bias

+1.28

OVER Win Rate

49.4%

UNDER Win Rate

61.7%

Bias by Position

MID

+1.23

DEF

+1.89

FWD

+0.42

RUCK

-1.61

Model is over-predicting by >1 disposal on average. Consider UNDER direction picks.

Win Rate by Position

PosPicksOriginalSimulatedDelta

MID33855%53.8%-1.2% ▼

DEF19455.7%56.2%+0.5% ▲

FWD6339.7%42.9%+3.2% ▲

RUCK1662.5%68.8%+6.3% ▲

Win Rate by Round (all picks tracked)

RoundPicksOriginalSimulatedDelta

Rd 313752.6%54%+1.4% ▲

Rd 415949.1%46.5%-2.6% ▼

Rd 516056.9%58.1%+1.2% ▲

Rd 615556.8%56.8%+0.0% —

Based on 611 verified picks · Rounds 3–6 · 2026 season

Win Rate by Condition (simulated)

Dry (611)

53.8%

Wet (0)

Roof (0)

Venue Reference (historical backtesting)

Adelaide Ovalhist57.1%

GABBAhist60%

GMHBA Stadiumhist55.6%

Marvel Stadiumhist51.9%

MCGhist48.6%

Optus Stadiumhist42.5%

Picks with Changed Outcome or Confidence226 picks

Josh Worrell

Rd 3 · DEF

vs 23.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Wayne Milera

Rd 3 · DEF

vs 23.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✗ LOSS·LEAN

WIN→LOSS ▼

Josh Rachele

Rd 3 · MID

vs 18.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Shaun Mannagh

Rd 3 · FWD

vs 16.5

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

✗ LOSS·LEAN

Tier change

Dan Houston

Rd 3 · DEF

vs 24.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✗ LOSS·LEAN

WIN→LOSS ▼

Scott Pendlebury

Rd 3 · MID

vs 20.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Isaac Quaynor

Rd 3 · DEF

vs 17.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Darcy Cameron

Rd 3 · RUCK

vs 16.5

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

✗ LOSS·LEAN

Tier change

Clayton Oliver

Rd 3 · MID

vs 26.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Connor Idun

Rd 3 · DEF

vs 18.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·STRONG

Tier change

Harry Himmelberg

Rd 3 · DEF

vs 18.5

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

✗ LOSS·STRONG

Tier change

Callum Wilkie

Rd 3 · DEF

vs 22.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Bradley Hill

Rd 3 · MID

vs 19.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·STRONG

Tier change

Lachie Neale

Rd 3 · MID

vs 29.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Dayne Zorko

Rd 3 · DEF

vs 28.5

✗ LOSS·STRONG

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Will Ashcroft

Rd 3 · MID

vs 27.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✓ WIN·LEAN

LOSS→WIN ▲

Darcy Wilmot

Rd 3 · DEF

vs 23.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Josh Dunkley

Rd 3 · MID

vs 22.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Zac Bailey

Rd 3 · MID

vs 19.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Levi Ashcroft

Rd 3 · MID

vs 17.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·STRONG

Tier change

Tom De Koning

Rd 3 · RUCK

vs 16.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✓ WIN·LEAN

LOSS→WIN ▲

Jordan Clark

Rd 3 · DEF

vs 25.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✓ WIN·LEAN

LOSS→WIN ▲

Shai Bolton

Rd 3 · FWD

vs 24.5

✗ LOSS·STRONG

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Luke Ryan

Rd 3 · DEF

vs 21.5

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

✗ LOSS·STRONG

Tier change

Matthew Johnson

Rd 3 · MID

vs 20.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·LEAN

Tier change

Karl Worner

Rd 3 · DEF

vs 17.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✗ LOSS·LEAN

WIN→LOSS ▼

Heath Chapman

Rd 3 · DEF

vs 16.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✓ WIN·LEAN

LOSS→WIN ▲

Jayden Short

Rd 3 · DEF

vs 25.5

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

✗ LOSS·STRONG

Tier change

Nick Vlastuin

Rd 3 · DEF

vs 18.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✓ WIN·LEAN

LOSS→WIN ▲

Sam Grlj

Rd 3 · FWD

vs 16.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Luke Davies-Uniacke

Rd 3 · MID

vs 28.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✓ WIN·LEAN

LOSS→WIN ▲

Jy Simpkin

Rd 3 · MID

vs 23.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✗ LOSS·LEAN

WIN→LOSS ▼

Luke McDonald

Rd 3 · DEF

vs 17.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Zach Merrett

Rd 3 · MID

vs 27.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Jye Caldwell

Rd 3 · MID

vs 24.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✗ LOSS·LEAN

WIN→LOSS ▼

Archie Roberts

Rd 3 · DEF

vs 23.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·STRONG

Tier change

Sam Durham

Rd 3 · MID

vs 21.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✗ LOSS·LEAN

WIN→LOSS ▼

Brayden Fiorini

Rd 3 · MID

vs 17.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Jacob Farrow

Rd 3 · DEF

vs 16.5

✗ LOSS·0

✓ WIN·STRONG

LOSS→WIN ▲

Jaxon Prior

Rd 3 · DEF

vs 16.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✓ WIN·LEAN

LOSS→WIN ▲

Will Brodie

Rd 3 · MID

vs 21.5

✗ LOSS·0

✓ WIN·STRONG

LOSS→WIN ▲

Jack Graham

Rd 3 · MID

vs 19.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✗ LOSS·LEAN

WIN→LOSS ▼

Liam Duggan

Rd 3 · DEF

vs 19.5

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

✗ LOSS·STRONG

Tier change

Tom McCarthy

Rd 3 · DEF

vs 19.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·STRONG

Tier change

Zak Butters

Rd 3 · MID

vs 32.5

✓ WIN·STRONG

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Jason Horne-Francis

Rd 3 · MID

vs 21.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✗ LOSS·LEAN

WIN→LOSS ▼

Willem Drew

Rd 3 · MID

vs 21.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·LEAN

Tier change

Logan Evans

Rd 3 · DEF

vs 17.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✓ WIN·LEAN

LOSS→WIN ▲

Oliver Florent

Rd 3 · MID

vs 21.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·LEAN

Tier change

Ed Langdon

Rd 3 · MID

vs 18.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✗ LOSS·LEAN

WIN→LOSS ▼

Zac Williams

Rd 3 · DEF

vs 17.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✓ WIN·LEAN

LOSS→WIN ▲

Jack Crisp

Rd 4 · MID

vs 22.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✗ LOSS·LEAN

WIN→LOSS ▼

Patrick Lipinski

Rd 4 · MID

vs 16.5

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

✗ LOSS·STRONG

Tier change

Isaac Quaynor

Rd 4 · DEF

vs 16.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✗ LOSS·LEAN

WIN→LOSS ▼

Lachie Schultz

Rd 4 · FWD

vs 16.5

✓ WIN·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✓ WIN·LEAN

Tier change

Dayne Zorko

Rd 4 · DEF

vs 28.5

✗ LOSS·STRONG

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Zac Bailey

Rd 4 · FWD

vs 20.5

✗ LOSS·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✗ LOSS·LEAN

Tier change

Ryan Lester

Rd 4 · DEF

vs 16.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Tom Blamires

Rd 4 · DEF

vs 18.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Patrick Cripps

Rd 4 · MID

vs 25.5

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

✗ LOSS·STRONG

Tier change

Andrew Brayshaw

Rd 4 · MID

vs 27.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✗ LOSS·LEAN

WIN→LOSS ▼

Shai Bolton

Rd 4 · FWD

vs 24.5

✓ WIN·HYBRID MID

✓ WIN·LEAN

Tier change

Murphy Reid

Rd 4 · FWD

vs 20.5

✗ LOSS·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✗ LOSS·LEAN

Tier change

Karl Worner

Rd 4 · DEF

vs 16.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·LEAN

Tier change

Josh Rachele

Rd 4 · FWD

vs 22.5

✓ WIN·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✓ WIN·STRONG

Tier change

Alex Neal-Bullen

Rd 4 · FWD

vs 16.5

✓ WIN·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Ollie Wines

Rd 4 · MID

vs 25.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Jayden Short

Rd 4 · DEF

vs 22.5

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

✗ LOSS·STRONG

Tier change

Nick Vlastuin

Rd 4 · DEF

vs 19.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✗ LOSS·LEAN

WIN→LOSS ▼

Sam Banks

Rd 4 · DEF

vs 19.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·STRONG

Tier change

Callum Mills

Rd 4 · MID

vs 24.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Nick Blakey

Rd 4 · DEF

vs 22.5

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

✗ LOSS·STRONG

Tier change

Riley Bice

Rd 4 · DEF

vs 19.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✓ WIN·LEAN

LOSS→WIN ▲

Brodie Grundy

Rd 4 · RUCK

vs 17.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✗ LOSS·LEAN

WIN→LOSS ▼

Justin McInerney

Rd 4 · MID

vs 23.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Harley Reid

Rd 4 · MID

vs 23.5

✓ WIN·STRONG

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Liam Baker

Rd 4 · MID

vs 21.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·LEAN

Tier change

Josh Lindsay

Rd 4 · DEF

vs 17.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✗ LOSS·LEAN

WIN→LOSS ▼

Willem Duursma

Rd 4 · FWD

vs 17.5

✓ WIN·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✓ WIN·LEAN

Tier change

John Noble

Rd 4 · DEF

vs 25.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·STRONG

Tier change

Bodhi Uwland

Rd 4 · DEF

vs 20.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Wil Powell

Rd 4 · DEF

vs 20.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·LEAN

Tier change

Christian Salem

Rd 4 · DEF

vs 21.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·STRONG

Tier change

Max Gawn

Rd 4 · RUCK

vs 19.5

✓ WIN·STRONG

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Bailey Dale

Rd 4 · DEF

vs 25.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Tim English

Rd 4 · RUCK

vs 20.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✓ WIN·MODERATE

LOSS→WIN ▲

Archie Roberts

Rd 4 · DEF

vs 23.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·STRONG

Tier change

Zak Johnson

Rd 4 · MID

vs 17.5

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

✗ LOSS·LEAN

Tier change

Xavier Duursma

Rd 4 · MID

vs 16.5

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

✗ LOSS·STRONG

Tier change

Gryan Miers

Rd 4 · FWD

vs 24.5

✗ LOSS·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✗ LOSS·LEAN

Tier change

Shaun Mannagh

Rd 4 · FWD

vs 18.5

✗ LOSS·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✗ LOSS·LEAN

Tier change

Oliver Dempsey

Rd 4 · FWD

vs 17.5

✗ LOSS·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Josh Ward

Rd 4 · MID

vs 21.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✓ WIN·LEAN

LOSS→WIN ▲

Dylan Moore

Rd 4 · FWD

vs 20.5

✗ LOSS·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Cam Mackenzie

Rd 4 · MID

vs 19.5

✓ WIN·STRONG

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Connor Macdonald

Rd 4 · FWD

vs 19.5

✗ LOSS·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✗ LOSS·LEAN

Tier change

Conor Nash

Rd 4 · MID

vs 19.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✗ LOSS·LEAN

WIN→LOSS ▼

Jack Ginnivan

Rd 4 · FWD

vs 19.5

✗ LOSS·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Josh Battle

Rd 4 · DEF

vs 18.5

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

✗ LOSS·STRONG

Tier change

Josh Weddle

Rd 4 · DEF

vs 16.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Jordan Dawson

Rd 5 · MID

vs 22.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Josh Rachele

Rd 5 · FWD

vs 21.5

✗ LOSS·HYBRID MID

✗ LOSS·LEAN

Tier change

James Peatling

Rd 5 · MID

vs 19.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✓ WIN·LEAN

LOSS→WIN ▲

Alex Neal-Bullen

Rd 5 · FWD

vs 17.5

✗ LOSS·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Izak Rankine

Rd 5 · FWD

vs 16.5

✗ LOSS·HYBRID MID

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Nick Daicos

Rd 5 · MID

vs 30.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·STRONG

Tier change

Jordan Clark

Rd 5 · DEF

vs 24.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Murphy Reid

Rd 5 · FWD

vs 21.5

✗ LOSS·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✓ WIN·LEAN

LOSS→WIN ▲

Luke Ryan

Rd 5 · DEF

vs 18.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Matthew Johnson

Rd 5 · MID

vs 18.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✗ LOSS·LEAN

WIN→LOSS ▼

Patrick Lipinski

Rd 5 · MID

vs 16.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Harry Sheezel

Rd 5 · DEF

vs 30.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·LEAN

Tier change

Jy Simpkin

Rd 5 · MID

vs 21.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✓ WIN·LEAN

LOSS→WIN ▲

Darcy Wilmot

Rd 5 · DEF

vs 20.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Jaspa Fletcher

Rd 5 · MID

vs 20.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Zac Bailey

Rd 5 · FWD

vs 20.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✓ WIN·LEAN

LOSS→WIN ▲

Keidean Coleman

Rd 5 · DEF

vs 19.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✗ LOSS·LEAN

WIN→LOSS ▼

George Wardlaw

Rd 5 · MID

vs 17.5

✓ WIN·STRONG

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Zach Merrett

Rd 5 · MID

vs 24.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·STRONG

Tier change

Jack Steele

Rd 5 · MID

vs 24.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✓ WIN·LEAN

LOSS→WIN ▲

Darcy Parish

Rd 5 · MID

vs 22.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✓ WIN·LEAN

LOSS→WIN ▲

Max Gawn

Rd 5 · RUCK

vs 22.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Noah Anderson

Rd 5 · MID

vs 25.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Chad Warner

Rd 5 · MID

vs 24.5

✓ WIN·STRONG

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

John Noble

Rd 5 · DEF

vs 24.5

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

✗ LOSS·STRONG

Tier change

Callum Mills

Rd 5 · MID

vs 23.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✓ WIN·LEAN

LOSS→WIN ▲

Isaac Heeney

Rd 5 · MID

vs 23.5

✗ LOSS·STRONG

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Riley Bice

Rd 5 · DEF

vs 21.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✗ LOSS·LEAN

WIN→LOSS ▼

Brodie Grundy

Rd 5 · RUCK

vs 20.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·STRONG

Tier change

Joel Jeffrey

Rd 5 · DEF

vs 19.5

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

✗ LOSS·STRONG

Tier change

Tom Papley

Rd 5 · FWD

vs 15.5

✓ WIN·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✓ WIN·LEAN

Tier change

Daniel Rioli

Rd 5 · DEF

vs 18.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Jai Serong

Rd 5 · MID

vs 18.5

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

✗ LOSS·STRONG

Tier change

Joel Freijah

Rd 5 · MID

vs 23.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·LEAN

Tier change

Josh Ward

Rd 5 · MID

vs 22.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✗ LOSS·LEAN

WIN→LOSS ▼

James Sicily

Rd 5 · DEF

vs 22.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·STRONG

Tier change

Connor Macdonald

Rd 5 · FWD

vs 18.5

✓ WIN·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Dylan Moore

Rd 5 · FWD

vs 20.5

✓ WIN·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✓ WIN·LEAN

Tier change

Jarman Impey

Rd 5 · DEF

vs 21.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Jack Ginnivan

Rd 5 · FWD

vs 19.5

✓ WIN·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Max Holmes

Rd 5 · MID

vs 28.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Gryan Miers

Rd 5 · FWD

vs 24.5

✗ LOSS·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Tanner Bruhn

Rd 5 · MID

vs 23.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Jack Graham

Rd 5 · MID

vs 18.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✗ LOSS·LEAN

WIN→LOSS ▼

Lawson Humphries

Rd 5 · DEF

vs 17.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Oliver Dempsey

Rd 5 · FWD

vs 16.5

✗ LOSS·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Shaun Mannagh

Rd 5 · FWD

vs 16.5

✗ LOSS·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✗ LOSS·LEAN

Tier change

Finn Callaghan

Rd 5 · MID

vs 29.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Jayden Short

Rd 5 · DEF

vs 22.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·STRONG

Tier change

Jack Ross

Rd 5 · MID

vs 21.5

✓ WIN·STRONG

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Harvey Thomas

Rd 5 · FWD

vs 20.5

✗ LOSS·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✗ LOSS·LEAN

Tier change

Toby Greene

Rd 5 · FWD

vs 20.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Joe Fonti

Rd 5 · DEF

vs 18.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Tyler Sonsie

Rd 5 · MID

vs 18.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✗ LOSS·LEAN

WIN→LOSS ▼

Harry Himmelberg

Rd 5 · DEF

vs 17.5

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

✗ LOSS·STRONG

Tier change

Ryan Angwin

Rd 5 · MID

vs 17.5

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

✗ LOSS·STRONG

Tier change

Sam Grlj

Rd 5 · FWD

vs 17.5

✓ WIN·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera

Rd 5 · DEF

vs 27.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✓ WIN·LEAN

LOSS→WIN ▲

Bradley Hill

Rd 5 · FWD

vs 21.5

✗ LOSS·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Jason Horne-Francis

Rd 5 · MID

vs 21.5

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

✗ LOSS·LEAN

Tier change

Jase Burgoyne

Rd 5 · DEF

vs 21.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Willem Drew

Rd 5 · MID

vs 19.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·LEAN

Tier change

Max Hall

Rd 5 · FWD

vs 17.5

✗ LOSS·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✗ LOSS·LEAN

Tier change

Aliir Aliir

Rd 5 · DEF

vs 16.5

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

✗ LOSS·STRONG

Tier change

Josh Daicos

Rd 6 · MID

vs 26.5

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

✗ LOSS·STRONG

Tier change

Patrick Cripps

Rd 6 · MID

vs 25.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✗ LOSS·LEAN

WIN→LOSS ▼

Adam Cerra

Rd 6 · MID

vs 23.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·LEAN

Tier change

Jack Crisp

Rd 6 · MID

vs 22.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✗ LOSS·LEAN

WIN→LOSS ▼

Oliver Hollands

Rd 6 · MID

vs 18.5

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

✗ LOSS·STRONG

Tier change

Brayden Maynard

Rd 6 · DEF

vs 17.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·STRONG

Tier change

Nick Haynes

Rd 6 · DEF

vs 17.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·STRONG

Tier change

Bailey Dale

Rd 6 · DEF

vs 23.5

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

✗ LOSS·LEAN

Tier change

Joel Freijah

Rd 6 · MID

vs 20.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Connor O'Sullivan

Rd 6 · DEF

vs 16.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Oliver Dempsey

Rd 6 · FWD

vs 16.5

✓ WIN·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Clayton Oliver

Rd 6 · MID

vs 28.5

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

✗ LOSS·LEAN

Tier change

Lachie Ash

Rd 6 · DEF

vs 27.5

✓ WIN·STRONG

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Finn Callaghan

Rd 6 · MID

vs 26.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Toby Greene

Rd 6 · FWD

vs 22.5

✗ LOSS·HYBRID MID

✗ LOSS·LEAN

Tier change

Harvey Thomas

Rd 6 · FWD

vs 20.5

✓ WIN·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✓ WIN·LEAN

Tier change

Riley Bice

Rd 6 · DEF

vs 20.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Connor Idun

Rd 6 · DEF

vs 18.5

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

✗ LOSS·STRONG

Tier change

Jai Serong

Rd 6 · MID

vs 17.5

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

✗ LOSS·STRONG

Tier change

James Rowbottom

Rd 6 · MID

vs 17.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·LEAN

Tier change

Phoenix Gothard

Rd 6 · FWD

vs 16.5

✗ LOSS·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Archie Roberts

Rd 6 · DEF

vs 27.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Christian Petracca

Rd 6 · MID

vs 27.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·LEAN

Tier change

Zach Merrett

Rd 6 · MID

vs 27.5

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

✗ LOSS·LEAN

Tier change

Matt Rowell

Rd 6 · MID

vs 26.5

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

✗ LOSS·LEAN

Tier change

John Noble

Rd 6 · DEF

vs 24.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·STRONG

Tier change

Jai Newcombe

Rd 6 · MID

vs 25.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·LEAN

Tier change

Jason Horne-Francis

Rd 6 · MID

vs 22.5

✗ LOSS·STRONG

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Connor Macdonald

Rd 6 · FWD

vs 21.5

✓ WIN·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✓ WIN·LEAN

Tier change

Jarman Impey

Rd 6 · DEF

vs 21.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Dylan Moore

Rd 6 · FWD

vs 20.5

✗ LOSS·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✗ LOSS·LEAN

Tier change

Jack Ginnivan

Rd 6 · FWD

vs 20.5

✗ LOSS·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✗ LOSS·LEAN

Tier change

Josh Ward

Rd 6 · MID

vs 20.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✗ LOSS·LEAN

WIN→LOSS ▼

Josh Battle

Rd 6 · DEF

vs 18.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·STRONG

Tier change

Massimo D'Ambrosio

Rd 6 · DEF

vs 18.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✗ LOSS·LEAN

WIN→LOSS ▼

Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera

Rd 6 · DEF

vs 27.5

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

✗ LOSS·LEAN

Tier change

Josh Worrell

Rd 6 · DEF

vs 24.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·STRONG

Tier change

Rory Laird

Rd 6 · MID

vs 24.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✓ WIN·LEAN

LOSS→WIN ▲

Marcus Windhager

Rd 6 · MID

vs 23.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Wayne Milera

Rd 6 · DEF

vs 22.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·STRONG

Tier change

Bradley Hill

Rd 6 · FWD

vs 20.5

✓ WIN·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

James Peatling

Rd 6 · MID

vs 20.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✓ WIN·LEAN

LOSS→WIN ▲

Izak Rankine

Rd 6 · FWD

vs 19.5

✗ LOSS·HYBRID MID

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Darcy Wilson

Rd 6 · MID

vs 17.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Max Hall

Rd 6 · FWD

vs 17.5

✗ LOSS·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Luke Davies-Uniacke

Rd 6 · MID

vs 27.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Luke Parker

Rd 6 · MID

vs 25.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·STRONG

Tier change

Dion Prestia

Rd 6 · MID

vs 19.5

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

✗ LOSS·LEAN

Tier change

George Wardlaw

Rd 6 · MID

vs 17.5

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

✗ LOSS·LEAN

Tier change

Sam Grlj

Rd 6 · FWD

vs 16.5

✓ WIN·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✓ WIN·LEAN

Tier change

Kysaiah Pickett

Rd 6 · FWD

vs 24.5

✓ WIN·HYBRID MID

✓ WIN·LEAN

Tier change

Jack Steele

Rd 6 · MID

vs 23.5

✓ WIN·MODERATE

✓ WIN·LEAN

Tier change

Zac Bailey

Rd 6 · FWD

vs 20.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Cam Rayner

Rd 6 · FWD

vs 17.5

✓ WIN·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✓ WIN·LEAN

Tier change

Harvey Langford

Rd 6 · MID

vs 16.5

✗ LOSS·STRONG

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Murphy Reid

Rd 6 · FWD

vs 22.5

✓ WIN·⛔ FWD — NO BET

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Tim Kelly

Rd 6 · MID

vs 22.5

✗ LOSS·STRONG

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Shai Bolton

Rd 6 · FWD

vs 20.5

✗ LOSS·HYBRID MID

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Liam Duggan

Rd 6 · DEF

vs 19.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✓ WIN·LEAN

LOSS→WIN ▲

Luke Ryan

Rd 6 · DEF

vs 19.5

✓ WIN·LEAN

✓ WIN·MODERATE

Tier change

Neil Erasmus

Rd 6 · MID

vs 19.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✗ LOSS·MODERATE

Tier change

Matthew Johnson

Rd 6 · MID

vs 17.5

✗ LOSS·LEAN

✓ WIN·LEAN

LOSS→WIN ▲

Top Changes

26 losses → wins ▲

Will Ashcroft (Rd 3)

Tom De Koning (Rd 3)

Jordan Clark (Rd 3)

26 wins → losses ▼

Wayne Milera (Rd 3)

Dan Houston (Rd 3)

Karl Worner (Rd 3)

Pattern: mostly MID picks

Simulation uses 611 verified picks · Rounds 3–6 · 2026 season. Not betting advice. 18+ only.